What Happened
If you wanted to buy solar panels for your home, the 30% federal tax credit expired on December 31, 2025. It's gone.
But if a finance company puts panels on your roof and you pay them every month? They keep getting tax credits through 2027 and can lock in projects through 2030.
Congress had a choice. They chose to end credits for regular homeowners while keeping them for corporations. Sunrun, the biggest rooftop solar company, spent nearly $8 million lobbying to make this happen. The original House bill would have cut off corporate credits too. The Senate version kept them in. That's the one that passed.
That's not a loophole. That's a policy choice.
Why This Matters
When you buy solar panels, you eventually pay them off. Then your electricity is basically free. You own something. You build equity.
When you lease panels or sign a power purchase agreement, you're renting your roof to a finance company for 20 to 25 years. They own the panels. They claim the tax credits. They keep the long term value. You get a slightly lower monthly bill but you never own anything.
The companies pushing these deals are not small businesses. Sunrun, Sunnova, and others are publicly traded corporations financed by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bank of America. When we talk about third party ownership, we're talking about Wall Street.
The Numbers
Tax credits
Individual homeowners: Credits ended December 31, 2025. Finance companies: Credits continue through 2027, with some projects protected through 2030. Businesses can also use accelerated depreciation to recover 44 to 55 percent of their costs. You cannot.
California's market collapse
Solar installations dropped 40 to 45 percent in 2024. The state lost 17,000 solar jobs by end of 2023. Over 100 solar companies filed bankruptcy in 2024. SunPower, a 39 year industry leader, went bankrupt in August 2024.
The shift to renting
In early 2023, about 80 percent of home solar was customer owned. By end of 2023, third party ownership jumped to 27 percent, the first increase since 2015. Sunrun now says 95 percent of their sales are subscriptions, meaning you don't own anything.
California Made It Worse
In April 2023, California changed how solar owners get paid for extra electricity they send to the grid. Under the old rules you got about 30 cents per kilowatt hour. Under NEM 3.0, you get about 8 cents. That's a 75 percent pay cut.
The California Solar and Storage Association called it a state of crisis. It took California 13 years to build its first million solar roofs, five years to build the second million, and one year to cut installations to a 10 year low.
San Diego Gets Hit Twice
San Diegans pay around 40 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity, about 130 percent higher than the national average. Rooftop solar was a way out. That escape route is now closing from multiple directions.
After NEM 3.0, solar applications in San Diego dropped 66 to 83 percent. And another hit is coming.
In September 2025, California regulators approved a change to how SDG&E charges for electricity at different times of day. It hasn't been implemented yet, but when it kicks in, solar only customers lose again.
Solar panels produce the most power from 10 AM to 2 PM. Under the new rules, SDG&E will classify those hours as Super Off Peak. The credit you get for sending solar power to the grid drops from about 44 cents to 34 cents per kilowatt hour. You sell your electricity at the cheapest rate, then buy it back at night at the most expensive rate.
The solar industry tried to stop this. SEIA opposed it because it would hurt solar and storage customers. Regulators approved it anyway, calling the harm minor.
An estimated 135,000 to 180,000 SDG&E households have solar but no battery. For a typical solar only home, this means about $300 less per year in export credits, on top of everything NEM 3.0 already took away.
If you don't have $10,000 to $15,000 for a battery, your solar investment just got devalued again by a rule change you had no say in.
The Virtual Power Plant Angle
When finance companies own the solar panels and batteries on thousands of roofs, they can bundle them together into virtual power plants and sell electricity back to the grid.
Sunrun has over 106,000 customers enrolled in these programs across 17 states. They collect your monthly payments and use equipment on your roof to make money selling grid services. You become the landlord's tenant and their business asset.
What You Can Do
If you missed the December 2025 deadline
The 30 percent federal credit for homeowner purchased systems is gone. Your only path to federal incentives now is through a lease or PPA, where the company gets the credit instead of you. If you go that route, understand what you're giving up: ownership, equity, and long term independence.
If you already have solar without a battery
The upcoming SDG&E rate change will reduce your export credits. Adding a battery lets you store midday power and use it during expensive evening hours instead of selling it cheap. Check if you qualify for battery incentive programs before the rate change hits.
Local programs that still help
San Diego Community Power's Solar Battery Savings Program offers around $6,900 in average incentives plus payments for battery use. However, many existing solar owners are not eligible because their systems are undersized for the program requirements.
California's Self Generation Incentive Program has $280 million available for low income customers. The San Diego Solar Equity Program offers up to $4 per watt for qualifying homeowners.
The Bottom Line
We had a chance to democratize energy. Solar panels on every roof, owned by the people who live there.
Instead, policy pushed us toward a new kind of energy landlord. The same Wall Street firms that turned housing into investment vehicles are doing the same thing with the sun hitting your roof.
The companies that benefit spent millions making sure the rules work in their favor. Congress listened. The federal tax credit for homeowners is gone while corporate credits continue. In San Diego, regulators are piling on with rate changes that punish solar only customers.
That's not energy democracy. It's financialization of the sun.